[vorbis-dev] vorbis.com

Marshall Eubanks tme at 21rst-century.com
Sun Dec 31 06:08:32 PST 2000

Aleksandar Dovnikovic wrote:
> "Frank Klemm" <pfk at fuchs.offl.uni-jena.de> wrote:
> > And in 5 years noone is interested in things like MP3 or Ogg Vorbis.
> > So wait 5 years and then Ogg can be moved to /dev/null.
> Maybe if you are using these formats to keep your music collection
> on your hard drive - lossless compressors will become more
> popular as hard drive space increases... but when you look at the
> internet - there's never enough compression. So as I see it, lossless
> codecs will be more popular in a couple of years (if you have
> at least a few hundred CDs - hard drives are still small for lossless),
> but in the internet/network domain lossy codecs will rule for a
> long time...
> Greetings,
> Aleksandar

Well, a typical audio compression for "CD quality" is 9 to 1 or 12 to 1.
Since bandwidth prices are dropping by a factor of 2 every 18 months or
so, it will be 5 years or more until you could send uncompressed PCM for the
same price as today's compressed audio.

When you think that uncompressed HDTV is 1.4 Gigabits/second, it will take
fiber to the home (i.e., a decade) before anyone will want to start
uncompressed video around.

All of these dates are far enough off in Internet time to be beyond the
effective event horizon -
who knows what will really develop. (Can you see the cable industry
dropping MPEG 2
for uncompressed video even if they had the bandwidth to do it ?).
Happy New Year to All ! Here's to the next millennium !

                                   Marshall Eubanks

   Multicast Technologies, Inc.
   10301 Democracy Lane, Suite 201
   Fairfax, Virginia 22030
   Phone : 703-293-9624          Fax     : 703-293-9609     
   e-mail : tme at on-the-i.com     http://www.on-the-i.com

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